The outlook for the technology sector in the capital market is now under the shadow of global macroeconomic pressures. Various external factors, ranging from surging oil prices due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East to high interest rate policies in the United States, pose significant challenges for companies heavily dependent on hardware imports.
An analyst from Sucor Sekuritas, Dicky Susilo Adi, outlined in his latest research that the artificial intelligence (AI) booming phenomenon has triggered an extreme rise in memory chip component prices. Projections from Gartner indicate that DRAM and NAND prices could surge drastically through 2027, directly pressuring procurement costs for local tech issuers such as PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk (MTDL) and PT Mastersystem Infotama Tbk (MSTI).
Economic conditions driving up cost of capital alongside the weakening rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar force industry players to make margin adjustments. Consequently, Sucor Sekuritas revised down profit estimates for both issuers, with cuts of 6-7 percent for MTDL and 10-12 percent for MSTI for the 2026-2027 period.
Despite facing pressures, Sucor Sekuritas maintains an 'overweight' recommendation for the technology sector and maintains buy ratings on both stocks. This is grounded in the belief that current market price corrections already reflect the existing risks, supported by strong balance sheets as well as long-term demand for digital transformation and AI infrastructure.
Between the two, MTDL is considered a more defensive choice thanks to its broad business diversification. Meanwhile, MSTI is seen as having attractive dividend yield potential, though investors need to anticipate higher volatility due to the company's dependence on tech infrastructure project cycles.
