Optimism regarding the pace of Indonesia's exports in the second half of 2026 now faces significant challenges. Domestic business actors must prepare to face a slowdown triggered by a combination of external factors, ranging from United States import tariff policies to unfavorable global commodity price dynamics.
Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia economist, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, warned that the impact of US import tariff policies would not be felt immediately, but would reach its climax in the second semester. In addition to tariff policies, Indonesia also faces the threat of global importers diverting export orders to competing countries, such as Vietnam and Mexico, which are considered to have better competitive advantages in the US market.
This condition is exacerbated by a weakening phase in the prices of key national commodities, such as coal and crude palm oil (CPO). On the other hand, demand for industrial metals from China has not shown significant recovery due to the slow realization of economic stimulus in that country. This uncertainty has made the national export growth target more conservative, ranging between zero to two percent.
Nevertheless, opportunities remain for the export sector to survive. Demand for non-oil and gas products from China, which recorded a growth of 17.7 percent from the beginning of the year to May 2026, is considered a crucial cushion. In addition, export potential from nickel downstreaming is expected to maintain trade performance stability amidst increasingly dynamic global challenges.
For information, currently Indonesian export products to the United States are still subject to a universal tariff of 10 percent. This policy is a temporary measure implemented following the annulment of the reciprocal tariff rule by the United States Supreme Court, which is set to expire on July 24, 2026.
