BRI Danareksa Sekuritas has officially set an 'overweight' outlook for the national banking sector. This move was made after observing a correction in banking stock prices, which is deemed to be too deep and not in line with actual financial fundamentals.
In his latest research, analyst Victor Stefano highlighted a significant shift in credit growth patterns. Investment credit is currently the main driver of growth, surging by 19% year-on-year (yoy) as of April 2026. Conversely, the consumer credit segment shows a sharp slowing trend, dropping to the 5–6% range, signaling pressure on public purchasing power and a more selective stance by banks in disbursing retail loans.
Although overall banking credit growth managed to hold at 9.9% yoy, there has been a gradual increase in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in the consumer segment, reaching 2.4%. This highlights the need for extra caution regarding future asset quality risks.
In response to these conditions, BRI Danareksa prefers to take a defensive stance. The choices fell on PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) and PT BTPN Syariah Tbk (BTPS) because both issuers have a solid return on assets (ROA) and lower leverage, making them more resilient against potential increases in credit costs.
To provide an investment target, BRI Danareksa has set a 'buy' recommendation with a target price of IDR 10,900 per share for BBCA and IDR 1,400 for BTPS. Nevertheless, investors are still reminded to closely monitor the main risks, namely the potential for more significant asset quality deterioration and pressure on the banks' Net Interest Margin (NIM).
