The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued an early warning regarding the El Niño phenomenon, which is predicted to be more intense from 2026 to early 2027. With a probability of reaching a moderate category at 98 percent and a strong category at 62 percent, Indonesia is projected to face a much drier and more prolonged dry season.
The Head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani, emphasized that the impact of this phenomenon is not limited to the environmental sector, such as the risk of forest fires. Hot and dry atmospheric conditions trigger a significant decline in air quality in urban areas, potentially causing a spike in cases of Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) and heat-related illnesses or heatstroke.
Responding to this, an Epidemiologist from Griffith University, Dicky Budiman, emphasized that El Niño acts as a catalyst or health risk multiplier. In addition to respiratory disorders such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, increased exposure to fine particulate matter PM 2.5 during the extreme dry season can trigger systemic inflammation.
Furthermore, Dicky highlighted the vulnerability of community groups with a history of cardiovascular disease. Exposure to pollution and extreme temperatures can worsen the health conditions of heart disease patients and increase the risk of stroke. Collectively, these phenomena create an environment conducive to the worsening of chronic diseases and potentially trigger the emergence of new outbreaks in society.
