Ahead of the commemoration of National Awakening Day on May 20, 2026, speculation has arisen regarding a potential rise in political temperatures in the country. Systemic challenges are alleged to come from oligarchic groups that feel threatened by several strategic government policies, which are seen as closing loopholes for economic rent-seeking, licensing manipulation, and the exploitation of state assets that have historically benefited a select few.
Political communication observer M. Jamiluddin Ritonga stated that despite the potential for ripples of tension, the power of the oligarchy and its affiliated elements is not deemed strong enough to shake the stability of President Prabowo Subianto's administration. According to him, there are three main foundations maintaining the current regime's resilience.
First, the solid unity and full loyalty of the TNI (Indonesian National Armed Forces) and Polri (Indonesian National Police) serve as the most crucial defense shield. Jamiluddin emphasized that historically, national political stability heavily depends on the support of security apparatuses, meaning any form of effort to destabilize the government would be difficult to realize without the blessing of these two institutions.
Second, the high level of public satisfaction with the government's performance serves as strong social capital. The public is said to have developed a critical awareness of the actions of oligarchs, meaning that provocative efforts to create political instability could actually trigger a backlash from citizens who support Prabowo's leadership.
Finally, the solid support of the majority of political parties provides strong legitimacy for the government to take firm policy actions. Jamiluddin added that provocations by oligarchic groups could backfire on them, while also providing momentum for the government to clean up economic practices that harm national interests.
